October 2008 Remains Seasonably Cool in USA

Temperatures and Rainfall Generally Close to Monthly Averages

Nov 10, 2008

The seasonable weather conditions that the US experienced in September 2008 have continued. However, it was colder than normal for much of the East and Southern Plains.

October 2008's weather as a whole was quite close to normal across the United States, with an average temperature of 54.5 degrees, according to data provided by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center last week. This was .3 degrees below normal, and follows a similar result in September 2008 where temperatures were a half degree above normal.

Precipitation across the country averaged 2.10 inches, which was a tenth of a inch below normal. This was drier than the month previous, although it should be noted that on average October rainfall is slightly less than September across much of the country.

A Cool October Across the East

Across much of the East, this October could be remembered as one of the colder ones in recent memory. After several years of warm autumns, 2008 is proving to be a different animal, with temperatures cooling off much quicker than some may be used to.

The Southeast once again saw appreciably colder temperatures during the month, although this time those conditions spread north all the way to Maine and west into the Southern Plains states. Coldest were Arkansas and Mississippi, who saw their 19th coldest October in the last 115 years.

Only two states saw warmer than normal conditions -- California and Arizona -- and that is contributing to the ninth warmest August-October period in record across the West. Contrast this with the South, which is seeing its seventh coolest August-October period on record.

Cool conditions are also pushing up demand for energy, which was 4.3 percent above normal in the month.

Dry Weather Continues in the West

Generally dry conditions were experienced across the country west of the Rockies, with similarly dry conditions seen across the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes states. This dry weather is not helping the continuing fire situation in the West, and NOAA reported that 6,392 new fires started during the month.

Drought conditions showed no change according the US Drought Monitor. There was some improvement over the northern Plains and parts of the Southeast, however the Tennessee and Ohio valleys saw worsening conditions, as did southern Texas, the Pacific Northwest, and Wisconsin.

In contrast, wetter than normal weather was experienced across the Northern Plains. NOAA said that Nebraska saw its wettest October on record, with a statewide average of 4.43 inches of precipitation.

El Nino, La Nina Effects are Nonexistent

If there may be a reason for the normal weather across the country, one may not need to look any further than the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the cyclical warming and cooling of waters in the Southern Pacific. This is often blamed for abnormal weather conditions across the world.

During the month, the ENSO was in a "neutral" phase, meaning the water temperatures were near normal. the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which makes forecasts on the phenomena, says these conditions should last through early 2009.

If that is the case, barring any other significant climatic effects the rest of the winter could also remain near normal, lending credence to winter forecasts provided by AccuWeather, among others.

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