Best Chances of a White Christmas
Climatologists Predict Snow Falling on Christmas Day in U.S., Canada
Climatologists and meteorologists use historical data collected from weather records over the past 45 years in the U.S. and Canada, to predict snow on Christmas Day.
Climatology Data Used to Predict Snowfall in United States
Climatologists can predict which locations will have a White Christmas, based on historical climatology data. The National Climatic Data Center has complied the statistics on what parts of the continental United States will get a White Christmas this year. The data considers location and the odds of getting an inch or more of snow on Christmas Day. These statistics were complied using climate data from observation stations recording data from 1961-1990.
U.S. Chances of Snow on Christmas Day
0-20% Chance
- Alabama
- Arizona (with exception of Flagstaff at 56%)
- Arkansas
- California
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maryland
- Mississippi
- New Jersey (with exception of Newark at 23%)
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma
- Oregon (with exception of Cascade Mountains and Eastern Oregon)
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Virginia
- Washington (with exception of Spokane and Cascade Mountains)
- Washington D.C.
20-40% Chance
- Connecticut (more chance in Hartford than rest of state)
- Idaho (with exception of Idaho Falls at 70%)
- Indiana (with exception of South Bend at 67%)
- Kansas
- Massachusetts (with exception of Milton and Worchester at 60%)
- Missouri
- Nevada (with exception of Las Vegas at 0%)
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- West Virginia
40-60% Chance
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- South Dakota
- Utah
60-80% Chance
- Minnesota
- Montana
- New York (with exception of New York City at 10%)
- North Dakota
- Wyoming
80-100% Chance
- Maine (entire state!)
- Michigan (with exception of Detroit at 50%)
- New Hampshire (entire state also!)
- Vermont (let it snow statewide!)
- Wisconsin (with exception of Milwaukee at 60%)
The Weather Channel has developed an interactive map, where visitors can enter their city or zip code for a regional probability of a White Christmas.
Canada’s Chances for a White Christmas
The Meteorological Service of Canada also produces a list of probabilities for a White Christmas, using over 45 years of weather and climate data. This probability of a White Christmas, bases statistics on 2 cm of snow on the ground on December 25th. Most northern Canadian cities and territories can count on a White Christmas!
Canada Chance of Snow on Christmas Day
- British Columbia: Vancouver - 11%
- Alberta: Edmonton - 88%, Calgary - 59%
- Saskatchewan - 90%
- Manitoba – 98%
- Ontario: Toronto – 57%, Ottawa – 83%
- Quebec: Montreal – 80%, Quebec City – 100%
- New Brunswick : Fredericton – 85%
- Nova Scotia: Halifax – 59%, Charlottetown – 87%
- Newfoundland and Labrador: St. John’s – 65%
- Nunavut: Iqaluit – 100%
- Northwest Territories: Yellowknife – 100%
- Yukon: Whitehorse – 100%
It is important to note that higher elevations, such as mountain ranges may receive more snow than lower elevations. Some regions of Western states and provinces may have a higher chance of snow than the probability that is reported above. Geography plays a major role in where snow will fall and its intensity. Snow depth may also vary according to location.
